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Support for negative stereotypes concerning African Americans was found to significantly lower the likelihood that the respondent would vote for Obama, according to this study.

The study also found that among the nationally representative sample of Americans, that 2.5 percent of all potential voters said that they will not vote for Obama because he is an African American and that support for Obama would be six percent higher if not for continued white racial prejudice directed at African Americans.

These findings, while seemingly shocking, are in line with much of the political science literature on bi-racial electoral contests.

Over the past 25 years, political scientists have found that not only do a substantial percentage of whites on election day when faced with a minority candidate of their own party decide to cross party lines to support the white candidate, but also hide their intentions of doing so when asked by public opinion pollsters. This phenomenon popularly known as the "Bradley Effect," after former Los Angeles mayor Tom Bradley, has plagued African American candidates of statewide or federal offices for the past half century.

The impact of race is not only confined to vote choice, but to the tenor of campaigns as well. In the post Civil Rights Era, white candidates in bi-racial elections have consistently used the "race card" to garner the support of racially conservative whites. These candidates have done so through their strict and vocal opposition to the policies of welfare and affirmative action and stringent support for state's rights and anti-crime measures. These policies have historically been associated negatively with African Americans, and researchers have found that these campaign messages activate anti-black sentiments among white voters which leads to greater electoral support for the white candidate.

Will these trends uncovered by political scientists influence the 2008 presidential election and serve to undermine Obama's electoral prospects?

Many in Obama's camp have argued that given his success in heavily populated white states such as Iowa, Utah, Idaho and Alaska, that he has in effect transcended his status as an "African American candidate" and the negative electoral consequences of this identity. Some point to the recent success that African American candidates, such as Governor Deval Patrick, have enjoyed in statewide elections and the declining incidence of the Bradley Effect in bi-racial contests around the country as further evidence that race no longer has the same grip over electoral campaigns.

This evidence has led many Obama supporters to fully believe, and sometimes chant, that race no longer matters. However, it must be noted that much of Obama's previous success has occurred in Democratic primaries, and although Obama is the first African American candidate to garner the Democratic presidential nomination, he is by no means the first African American to win a statewide Democratic primary.

The true test of the impact of race in electoral contests has always been in general elections, as the Bradley Effect and the use of the race card have historically occurred in contests between Democrats and Republicans.

Current events surrounding the campaign point to the potential for race to rear its ugly head once again in our national politics. Some argue that the Bradley Effect best explains Obama's defeat in the New Hampshire Democratic primary and is a harbinger of Election night results among white Americans of all political persuasions.

Others believe that McCain, the Republican Party and conservative political action groups have already begun to court racially conservative white Democratic and independent voters through campaign advertisements that emphasize McCain's support for state's rights, his opposition to affirmative action, and Obama's supposed support for the tenets of Reverend Jeremiah Wright. In fact, Floyd G. Brown, the producer of the infamous Willie Horton ads in the 1988 presidential election, has produced a number of ads that portray Obama as soft on violent crime.

These events indicate that race will not be a "wash" in the presidential election, but may be used to ensure Obama's defeat. So what, if anything, can be done?

Recent public opinion polls that have Obama either tied or slightly ahead of McCain point to a repeat of the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections. However, unlike the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections, the results from the AP/Yahoo survey coupled with the extensive literature in political science suggest that race will be a key factor in determining the next president of the United States.

Obama, in order to ensure that race is indeed a "wash," must continue to focus on issues and ideas that unite Americans, to mobilize new voters, and emphasize his message of change in order to continue to ignite passion and interest in his vision for America among people of all races. However, at the same time, Obama must publically challenge any and all attempts by the opposition to employ the race card and hold Senator McCain to his declaration to focus on the issues and not on racial fears.

Will Obama overcome half a century's worth of scholarly work on race and campaigns? Can Obama ease the fears of white voters concerned about his racial background? Yes he can.

Tatishe M. Nteta is an assistant professor of political science at UMass Amherst.
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