The Real Cost of Prisons Weblog

Regular readers know that in 2007 the Legislature took steps aimed at reducing inmate populations at the Texas Youth Commission, including shifting 19-20 year olds to TDCJ and refusing to take misdemeanants at state youth prisons. The population drop can be seen most dramatically in the number of releases. TYC released 4,375 inmates during fiscal year 2007, up from 3,554 in fy 2006. By comparison, the number of new inmates entering TYC decreased from 3,462 in fy 2006 to 2,994 in fy 2007 and an estimated 2,090 in 2008 (based on the monthly rate for the first seven months). LBB predicts the new level of intakes will hold steady at 2,090 over the next five years.

Those declines mainly represent implementation of a new law disallowing judges from sending misdemeanants to TYC, reduced lengths of stay, and reduced numbers from a handful of counties that essentially quit sending kids to the agency. Indeed, the reduced numbers allowed TYC to meet minimum staffing requirements for the first time in years.

On its face, TYC's reduced inmate population seems like it might be sustainable, particularly given that juvie crime is declining: "Texas juvenile arrest rate decreased between calendar years 2005 and 2006 (1.3 percent) following a decrease between calendar years 2004 and 2005 (8.3 percent)." Not only are arrests down, says LBB, Texas' overall juvie population is growing at a slower rate than in the past.

Even so, TYC's reduced inmate population will be shortlived unless more is done to reform the system. Today TYC operates at 6.5% below maximum capacity, and will slightly exceed max capacity in fy 2009, says LBB. But it's what happens after that which made me sit up and take notice. LBB predicts TYC's inmate population will resume fairly rapid growth in the near term, rising to 13.5% above apacity by 2010 and shooting up to 23.3% above capacity in 2012.

So the situation is this: Juvie crime is declining but total commitments to TYC will increase by about a quarter over the next four years as the agency's inmate population creeps back up toward their previous, higher levels. By contrast, LBB projects the increase in Texas' juvie probation population will be de minimus over the same period, with the number of juvie probationers overall expanding just .03% annually.

These data have significant implications for proposed TYC reforms. For starters, those like Sen. John Whitmire proposing the agency's abolition will be chagrined to see projections indicating a greater dependence on youth prisons going forward, not less of one.

That said, the adult system predicted massive overcrowding just a couple of years ago, and as discussed Saturday. reforms implemented by Sen. Whitmire and his colleagues staved off that increase for the foreseeable future by expanding treatment and diversion programs. They could do the same for TYC, but according to these data, changes implemented in 2007 failed to resolve the agency's crowding problems long term.
http://gritsforbreakfast.blogspot.com/2008/09/tyc-commitments-predicted-to-grow.html