The Real Cost of Prisons Weblog

There's been a similar, if slightly less dramatic, drop in property crimes. The causes of the crime decline are much in dispute among those who deign to offer opinions, ranging from demography to a much-improved economy, better policing and the effects of "three strikes and you're out" and other get-tough sentencing laws. Whatever its causes, the trend is reflected in polls of Californians indicating that while they are worried about many aspects of their lives these days, crime isn't one of them. When the Public Policy Institute of California polled Californians recently on what issues they want the candidates for governor to address, crime didn't even make the list. Immigration was No. 1, followed by education, state finances, the economy and infrastructure deficiencies. The same poll also found that when Californians were asked to rank priorities for spending more public money, education was on top, with just 24 percent listing prisons. That said, crime can still be a potent political campaign issue, especially if it's framed in terms that have visceral appeal, such as crimes against children, and that's why as he seeks a second term this year, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger will be playing the crime card even as the federal courts move closer to seizing control of the state's much-troubled prison system. When John Hagar, the special prison overseer appointed by a federal judge, stepped up his accusations last week that Schwarzenegger's administration was abandoning prison reform and cozying up to the powerful union that represents prison guards, one might have expected challenger Phil Angelides to hit it as a campaign issue. But Angelides would like nothing better than for the California Correctional Peace Officers Association (CCPOA) to devote its multimillion-dollar political war chest to his election, so he's not about to say anything negative about the union's influence. Prison reform is a fine concept in the abstract and a passionate cause for some liberal groups, who contend that California's severely overcrowded prisons could be made more habitable by reducing the ranks of low-threat inmates and diverting drug offenders into treatment, but as a political issue it's pretty much a loser. Inmates and their families are not a political bloc. Crime victims groups -- many of which are underwritten by CCPOA -- are a potent force, and they want more people locked up, not fewer. On the very day that Hagar issued his blistering attack on Schwarzenegger, the governor signed a bill that makes it easier to put drug addicts behind bars if they don't comply with treatment diversion programs. A day later, he conducted an online question-and-answer session in which he reiterated his opposition to softening up "three strikes" or any other sentencing laws and touted his own prison reform plan, consisting largely of building more prisons (which would require more CCPOA guards). And a day after that, he signed the official argument for Proposition 83, an initiative that would keep those who prey on children for sexual gratification in prison for longer terms. This is a governor who wants Californians to know that he's as tough on crime as his action movie characters. While crime may not loom as large as a popular concern as it was in years past, he -- much like predecessor Gray Davis -- is not going to give CCPOA or anyone else the opportunity to portray him as soft. And if the courts were to take over the prisons because Schwarzenegger is treating inmates too harshly, it would, to paraphrase another celluloid crimefighter, make his day. Angelides, meanwhile, seems paralyzed by crime as a political issue, unwilling to offend either the liberal blocs who want prison reform or CCPOA, which wants even more felons locked up with union members watching them night and day.

Dan Walters at sacbee.com.