The Real Cost of Prisons Weblog

Another way of viewing the trade-off between positive and negative effects of CORI is the question of false positives and false negatives. A false positive is someone treated as a high risk for recidivism although he is actually completely committed to avoiding future criminal behavior and has the psychological resources to meet that commitment. Treating him inaccurately as a high risk may limit his legitimate opportunities and push him into criminal behavior despite his good intentions.

A false negative is someone wrongly considered safe to operate in society in terms of parole considerations or sealing his record. If this individual recidivates, the error of the initial judgment becomes obvious. One of the difficulties in weighing the risks of parole or a sealed record is that false negatives are visible and attract great public attention. False positives are invisible but are also problematic because of the increased costs of incarceration or other intense supervision and because of the unnecessary constraints that restrict opportunities for the individual and his family.

We can make our best judgment about how to minimize false positives and false negatives by studying the determinants of recidivism. For the purpose of CORI legislation, the most important question is the relationship between time of last offense (or release from prison) and likelihood of recidivism. Recidivism can be measured in several ways, but in terms of public safety issues, recidivism is best measured by an additional felony conviction.

It is widely understood that ex-inmates who recidivate are most likely to do so shortly after release from custody. There is a predictable curve that charts recidivism rates over time—rates are high in the first two years post-release, significantly lower in the third year, and approach zero risk by year five.

There is not a lot of research on recidivism rates beyond three years post-release, but the existing studies are clear. In 2001 the Florida Department of Correction conducted a seven-year follow-up study of inmates released since 1993. The recidivism rate approached zero for those who were six years post release.1 The Illinois Department of Correction conducted a three-year follow-up study of inmates released in 1998. Twenty-eight percent were re-incarcerated for a new conviction within two years; in year 3, only an additional 7% were incarcerated with a new conviction.2 These data compare closely with the Florida data for years 1-3. A 2001 national study by the Solicitor General of Canada found a five-year recidivism rate of 17%. For the next five years only an additional 4% of the original sample were convicted and re-incarcerated.

These studies suggest strongly that after 5-7 years post-prison release, ex-offenders who have not recidivated pose an extremely low risk of recidivating in the future. Although the risk of recidivism in the early years after release (false negatives) is greater than the risks associated with false positives, after five to seven years the situation is reversed and barriers to employment and reintegration with society are arguably much more likely to cause crime than to prevent it.

The most cautious analysis of the evidence supports sealing CORI at seven years after release from prison or from the time of felony conviction if there was no prison sentence or one shorter than seven years. Rep. Byron Rushing has proposed legislation that is absolutely consistent with the research. House Bill 973 (“Accelerating the Sealing of Conviction Criminal Offender Record Information”) would provide for the automatic sealing of felony convictions seven years after the end of an ex-offender’s sentence, instead of the current fifteen years (see CJPC newsletters of December, 2004, and April and July, 2005, for information on related and equally appropriate proposed legislation). The passage of this legislation would be another step toward a more effective, just and humane criminal justice policy.

James Hannon is Associate Professor of Criminal Justice, Anna Maria College, Paxton, MA and a member of the Board of CJPC.

Criminal Justice Policy Coaltion.563 Massachusetts Ave., Boston, MA 02118 www.cjpc.org / email:admin@cjpc.org

1.www.dc.state.fl.us/pub/recidivism/2001/curves.html (accessed 9/3/05)

http://www.idoc.state.il.us/subsections/reports/statistical_presentation_2002/part2.shtml (accessed 9/3/05)