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How Prospects for Prop. 66 Fell So Far, So Fast
Three-strikes revamp looked likely till Pete Wilson, the governor and a
billionaire joined to defeat it.
By Joe Mathews
Times Staff Writer

November 7, 2004

The phone rang at midnight.

Jeff Randle, one of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's political consultants, was
working in a hotel room near LAX on the night of Oct. 21 as he grabbed his
cellphone. Who, Randle wondered, could be calling him at such an hour?

Pete Wilson was on the line. The former California governor had just
clinched an agreement that, only 12 days before the election, would mean
the collapse of Proposition 66, a measure to limit the state's
three-strikes law.

Henry T. Nicholas III, an Orange County billionaire whose sister was slain
in 1984, had just promised Wilson a donation of $1.5 million for the
campaign to defeat the initiative. That money would allow its opponents to
broadcast TV commercials for the first time.

"My message on that call was: OK, you've got the money, so let's go,"
Wilson recalled last week. "This was the cavalry coming over the ridge."

The day before Wilson's midnight call, Californians appeared ready to pass
Proposition 66. A Times poll showed it leading 62%-21% among registered
voters. Less than two weeks later, after a media blitz financed by
Nicholas, Proposition 66 lost, with 53.2% of voters against it. A final
tally will not be available until all absentee and provisional ballots are
counted.

"We've seen steep declines before," says Mark DiCamillo, director of the
Field Poll, which recorded a 65%-18% lead for Proposition 66 in early
October. "The very late-breaking nature of this decline, I think, is
unprecedented."

The story of that turnaround highlights not only the power of money and the
volatility of initiative politics, but also the continuing political
partnership between the state's two most recent Republican governors.

On Oct. 22, the day after Wilson's call, Schwarzenegger made "No on 66" the
top priority of his ballot measure campaigning. On Oct. 23, the governor
spent the afternoon making TV advertisements opposing the initiative in a
Los Angeles studio. Schwarzenegger also converted TV time he had bought to
fight two gambling measures into time for "No on 66" ads.

"What I basically did was brought everyone together and said, 'Look, guys
we've got to go and communicate to the people,' " Schwarzenegger said last
week.

Schwarzenegger also said he had asked Wilson to get involved. Wilson
campaigned for the original three-strikes initiative in 1994 and maintains
long-standing relationships with law enforcement and crime victims groups.
Those involved in the No on 66 campaign say he provided a crucial bridge to
Nicholas, law enforcement groups and Schwarzenegger's political advisors,
among them several one-time Wilson aides.

"We couldn't generate momentum until Gov. Wilson and Gov. Schwarzenegger
became involved," said Ventura County Dist. Atty. Greg Totten, who has
known Wilson for years.

"I was a nag," said Wilson, who downplays his work and credits Nicholas and
Schwarzenegger with the No on 66 comeback. The anti-66 campaign had been
kept alive since the spring by the California District Attorneys Assn. and
the state prison guards union, which hired the campaign's political
consultants and paid for focus groups.

Schwarzenegger agreed to oppose 66 and sign the official ballot argument
against it in early summer. But until mid-October, the governor had focused
his attention and political money on defeating two gambling measures,
Propositions 68 and 70. No other major donors had stepped up to help the No
on 66 campaign.

In early October, campaign manager Richard Temple told a meeting of
district attorneys: "If we don't get up on TV, we'll lose." Solano County
Dist. Atty. Dave Paulson and California District Attorneys Assn. executive
director Dave LaBahn went to Randle's office shortly thereafter, the two
men say, to plead for Schwarzenegger's help.

With 68 and 70 badly trailing, the governor's team debated whether to make
the defeat of 66 its next priority, or focus more on two other ballot
measures - Propositions 64 and 72 - of concern to the business community.

Schwarzenegger answered that question after attending a No on 66 news
conference in Ontario on Oct. 20. The day did not begin auspiciously. Some
local TV reporters who had been expected to attend the event were
reassigned to cover a large Southern California rainstorm. No on 66
campaign aides gave the news media a DVD with a TV advertisement they had
not found the money to air.

But the governor was visibly moved when he met victims of criminals who
might have been released if 66 had passed. At the end of the event, he
asked the victims to attend other public events for No on 66, according to
one victim and an aide. He told political advisors he wanted to do more to
help the campaign.

"It hit him in the heart," said Don Sipple, a strategist who makes the
governor's ads.

The next night, Wilson got Nicholas on the phone. The No on 66 campaign had
been asking Nicholas for money since September, but the founder of the
semiconductor company Broadcom had been distracted by his search for a new
chief executive.

Wilson had worked with Nicholas on Proposition 21 - a juvenile crime
measure passed in March 2000 - and knew Nicholas' mother, Marcella Leach,
who had started a victims' rights group. Nicholas was shocked to learn from
Wilson that polls showed Proposition 66 would pass. He was impressed that
Schwarzenegger opposed the measure.

"I said, 'I trust your judgment, Pete,' " said Nicholas. "If you think
Arnold is willing to go all out, I'll put $1.5 million in."

The next day, Schwarzenegger agreed to jump in. Sipple wrote scripts for
ads juxtaposing the governor against blown-up mug shots of three-strikes
criminals; the ads were just 15 seconds, so air time could be bought on
short notice and the ads could be repeated often.

The governor's political advisors have sought to emphasize that
Schwarzenegger, criticized for being too cautious in picking fights, was
challenging a ballot measure that had majority support in polls. "I think
it shows the governor was willing to take a risk," said Randle.

The Schwarzenegger ads were on the air by the morning of Oct. 27. That same
week, the prison guards union contributed $500,000 more to the campaign.
The governor contributed more than $2 million through the California
Recovery Team, a fund he established last year to pay for his ballot
initiative campaigns. Nicholas made additional donations throughout the
week - in the end, he gave a total of $3.5 million to fight 66.

On Oct. 28, Schwarzenegger and Wilson appeared together at a Los Angeles
news conference, along with former governors Jerry Brown and Gray Davis, to
denounce 66. The governor made a No on 66 message a central part of his bus
tour around the state that Saturday and declared all his last-minute
appearances with Republican legislative candidates Monday to be No on 66
events.

Nicholas, who stayed in close touch with Wilson, spent the weekend making
and buying his own radio ads - at times with his personal credit card.

On Saturday night, he sent his private plane to Oakland to pick up the
city's mayor, former Gov. Brown, and fly him to Long Beach. Brown was taken
to a studio at the home of Ryan Shuck, guitarist of the group Orgy. Joined
by musicians that included Korn drummer David Silvera, he recorded radio
ads from 11:30 p.m. until 2:30 a.m.

"It was a very loose, cool mood," said Shuck. "I had Korn, Orgy, Jerry
Brown and Dr. Nicholas in my house all at once. Pretty bizarre."

Proposition 66 supporters dogged the governor's public appearances
throughout the weekend, seeking out reporters to give them instant
responses to Schwarzenegger's statements. But Yes on 66 campaign officials
said they were overwhelmed by the size and scope of the No on 66 media
campaign.

"The suddenness of it all was just stunning," said Sandy Harrison, a
spokesman for Yes on 66. Harrison called attacks on the measure "flat-out
false."

But he added: "Everything changed in the last few days. They basically
bought up every inch of unused air time that was available. And the
governor was just an awesome messenger for them."

On election night, early returns showed the measure passing. But the Yes
tally lost ground as the night went on. At 11:30 p.m., Schwarzenegger took
the stage at his Beverly Hilton celebration and declared victory - even
though 66 still held a slight majority.

After his speech, results began to show the number of No votes surpassing
the Yes votes. A cheer went up from the district attorneys in one of the
ballrooms. The clock read midnight.

Wilson stayed past 1 a.m., shaking hands and chatting with former aides now
working for Schwarzenegger. "Our guys have been thanking both governors,"
said LaBahn, the executive director of the district attorneys group.
"Wilson and Schwarzenegger - that's a tough team to beat."

*

Times staff writer Jenifer Warren contributed to this report.

Copyright 2004 Los Angeles Times